We get to this point every year: I start to feel like a bully. I pick on the same teams, week after week, because (I assume) alumni won’t allow the lines to adjust. Penn State is 1-6 against the spread this year – and they’re ranked 22! In the country! The whole country! I shouted in my living room to no one in particular when I saw that. I can probably name a dozen unranked teams who deserve it more than Penn State. So ok, I guess I’m going to stop feeling like a bully and just start my annual shrieking about the BCS instead. Onto the picks before I go off on a rant.
OK State/Mizzou O 69.5: I was going to take Oklahoma State ATS because I have a well-known crush on Justin Blackmon, but Mizzou was able to hang with Oklahoma (relatively speaking) in Norman. But that’s the same reason this over seems like a safe bet: the Cowboys average 49.2 ppg and no one’s held them to fewer than 30 so far this year. Mizzou isn’t going to be the team that does, but I do think they’ll give Mike Gundy’s squad a game in Columbia, and the score could head upwards of 80.
Houston/Marshall O 60: I’m kind of holding my nose while I take this. Marshall seems somewhat averse to scoring points. But Houston will likely get to at least 50 by themselves, and their defense is…well, as good as it has to be with Case Keenum at the helm of the offense.
Northwestern +4.5: Did Dan Persa die? No, it turns out he did not. But that was my first thought when I saw this line. No one likes to feel like they’re beating up on Joe Paterno, but that’s exactly what I’m doing. Every week when I see the inflated lines, I check Penn State’s quarterback situation, thinking, “laying that many points, this must be the week that they finally named a single signal-caller.” But no. These two are still fighting it out in an epic battle of who is more terrible. Northwestern ranks last in the nation in pass defense but with both (WHY?) McGloin and Bolden determined to connect on as few passes as possible, it won’t matter this week.
