If you aren’t familiar with the Bowl Mania conceit, the idea is that you must not only pick the winners of all 35 bowl games straight up (not against the spread, unfortunately), but you also must rank your picks in order of confidence. The picks lock when the first game kicks off, meaning that you’re forced to pick the January games well in advance – often missing critical information about injuries, or (more common this time of year) academic suspensions. But we do the best we can, and I will post my picks for each day’s games here for all to see and laugh at.
A note on how I’m doing this: For each game, I’ll include my straight up pick and my confidence ranking, bearing in mind that the lower the number, the less confident I am – and the fewer points I score in my Bowl Mania pool.
New Mexico Bowl: Temple Owls vs. Wyoming Cowboys
This is a classic example of why picking bowls is tricky. If this were a regular season game, my scouting report would read something like this: the Owls have a clear advantage with running back Bernard Pierce, who will capitalize on Wyoming’s sieve-like run defense. But intangibles are more significant during bowl season. Intangibles like…the Owls and their fans have much further to travel to the University of New Mexico’s stadium in Albuquerque. Meanwhile, with their school record-setting running back and stifling defense, Temple fully expected to go bowling, while the Pokes are excited just to be there. That kind of enthusiasm gap is exactly what leads to upsets in bowl games. I like the Cowboys against the spread (6.5), but enthusiasm gap or not, I can’t in good conscience take that run defense over Bernard Pierce. Pick: Temple. Confidence: 9
Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State Aggies vs. Ohio Bobcats
I think the “other” Ohio is going to struggle when they take on Utah State in Boise. Until this year the Aggies got regular experience on the blue turf, and the five-hour drive should mean that a lot of fans makes the trip. Besides that, the Ohio is limping into town following their epic collapse in the MAC championship. This should be an exciting, high-scoring affair (gamblers: I like the over if the total stays under 60), but in the end the Bobcats will have to spend the off season licking their wounds in preparation for what should by all rights be a banner year for them in 2012. Laying 2.5 is a no brainer to me (it actually opened at -3.5, and I’m not sure why it moved in that direction) as is the straight pick: Utah State. Confidence: 31
New Orleans Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
The Ragin’ Cajuns have a couple intangibles going for them: the New Orleans Bowl is essentially a home game for them, and it ends a 41 year bowl drought – basically the definition of being excited to be there. Plus they’re the Ragin’ Cajuns! How do you pick against that? I mean unless they’re playing the Fighting Blue Hens, which they’re not. They’re playing the supremely unexcited San Diego State Aztecs. How do I know they’re not excited? Well, they’re reaction to the New Orleans Bowl invite was along the lines of, “I guess it’s better than not going to a bowl at all.” Chin up there, Aztecs! In the “neither here nor there” column, Lousiana-Lafayette’s previous bowl appearances were in the 1970 Grantland Rice Bowl in Baton Rouge and the 1943 Oil Bowl in Houston, which was apparently prior to the invention of the public relations industry. I mean seriously? The Oil Bowl? Nobody had second thoughts about that one? Well, I’ll tell you what I have second thoughts about: picking against Ronnie Hillman. True fact: the San Diego State running back finished the year third in all of America in rushing. (Well, at least the part of America that plays on FBS football teams.) That’s what’s pushing my confidence level down on this game, but I’m still going to pick: Louisiana-Lafayette. Confidence: 21
