When you’re wrong, you’re wrong. And boy was I wrong Thursday night. Well technically I was wrong Monday morning, and there’s a good argument to be made that I have no business making picks pre-coffee. Because Thursday night I was actually 100% correct with the over – 91 points.
So let’s talk Saturday games.
Indiana +14.5: Don’t get me wrong: the Hoosiers are terrible. They’ve lost to Ball St., Virginia, and North Texas for God’s sake. (So far!) But they’ve got Penn State at home, and Penn State is 0-4 ATS this season. Let me repeat that: Penn State is 0-4 against the spread this season. Why? Because Penn State is running the most dysfunctional two quarterback system I’ve ever seen. I’m of the opinion that there’s no such thing as a good two quarterback system, but these two hate each other so much that they’re taking shots in the press. It’s a bad time. I wouldn’t put a ton of money here because it’s still Indiana, but I’m not the only one who’s noticed this; the line opened at 17.5. (Ok, this is one I should have picked Monday morning.)
Temple -8: Poor Toledo. They should be 3-1 ATS and 2-2 in, you know, real life, because they actually beat Syracuse last week. The thing is, Temple appears to be the MAC team to beat this year – even for AQs. See last week I would have told you to take Maryland and laugh all the way to the bank. College players don’t usually recover well from the kind of emotional game the Owls had with Penn State. In fact, there were two surprises in that vein last week; Clemson was the other. This week will be a real test for both teams: are they the real deal, or did they both just manage to delay the hangover for a week? Granted, the Rockets are coming in angry – but I like Temple at home.
Northwestern +10: Dan Persa comes back this week. Illini, brace yourselves: you’re about to get Zookered. Yes, Illinois is 3-1, but Arizona State is their only opponent from a BCS conference. Also, did you hear Dan Persa is coming back this week? He has a 73.5% completion rate. To put that in perspective, Andrew Luck’s is 67.1%.
Ga Tech -10: Nothing to joke about here: the Yellow Jackets lead the nation in total offense (630.5 ypg), scoring (53.2 ppg) and pass efficiency (283.6). Meanwhile NC State is ranked 93rd in total defense and has lost basically their entire D-line to injuries. This is shaping up to be a long afternoon for the Wolfpack.
Baylor -3.5: Rece Davis stated this morning that Robert Griffin III has more touchdown passes than incompletions. Sounds ridiculous, right? It’s true. 13 TDs, 12 incomplete passes. All season. 12 incomplete passes. Remember all those nice things I said about Georgia Tech and their stats? Well Baylor is right behind them: second in total offense and pass efficiency, and third in scoring. For what it’s worth, I also like the under in this game (65.5 total). K State has a solid defense and they’re not as interested in scoring points as the Bears are, possibly because they prefer fumbling the ball.
That’s all for today. As usual, I’ve looked for value in mismatches don’t draw a lot of national attention. I’ll leave the night games to the pros. Go Gators!
